Is the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday really a battle between just two horses?
Trainers at Churchill Downs are buzzing about Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the top two favorites on the morning line.
“On his best day, Fierceness is in a league of his own,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. stated. “Sierra Leone is also a very strong contender but with a different running style. These two horses stand out, followed by a wide-open field.”
Historically, post-time favorites have performed well under the current points system for Kentucky Derby qualifiers established in 2013, finishing in the superfecta payout every year – six wins, two seconds, one third, and two fourths.
However, for those seeking alternatives to Fierceness and Sierra Leone in their exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets, we have you covered.
Here are three horses that could succeed against the favorites:
Just a Touch
Traditionally, a horse entering the Kentucky Derby unraced at 2 years old and with only three races would be disregarded. However, since Justify broke the “Curse of Apollo” in 2018, perceptions have shifted.
Just a Touch, the offspring of Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018, started racing on Jan. 27 and secured second place in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.
What sets him apart as a Derby contender?
“He’s incredibly talented,” noted trainer Brad Cox. “We’ve been impressed with him since his arrival last November… He showed improvement in the Gotham and continued that in the Blue Grass. However, I believe there’s more room for growth. He’ll need to step up further to compete in the top three at the Derby.”
Supporters of Beyer speed figures will appreciate his progression in the three races: 89, 90, and 96.
Forever Young
This horse faces a challenge in defying Kentucky Derby trends by winning. Previous UAE Derby victors have never won the race in 19 attempts, and Japan-bred horses are winless in four races since 2019.
Yet, many believe that Forever Young, who boasts a perfect 5-0 record, is the best Japanese entry in the Derby.
Pegged at 10-1 odds, Forever Young shares the co-fourth favorite spot with Just a Touch in the morning line.
“He’s an exceptional horse,” jockey Ryusei Sakai commented. “He’s undefeated up to this point. Since winning the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in Kawasaki last December, the focus has been on the Kentucky Derby… With his talent, experiences this year, and preparation, we’re feeling optimistic.”
One concern is that Forever Young lacks experience dealing with kickback that he may face in the Derby.
WANNA BET?Wager on the Kentucky Derby with FanDuel Racing
Catching Freedom
Trainer Brad Cox has high hopes for Catching Freedom, a Kentucky Derby contender with a strong track record. Catching Freedom recently won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in an impressive come-from-behind victory, showcasing his potential for success on Derby Day according to Cox.
Despite being the third choice at 8-1 odds, Catching Freedom has been somewhat overshadowed by Fierceness and Sierra Leone, who had victories in their final prep races after Catching Freedom’s win. Cox acknowledges that these two favorites have performed well, attributing Catching Freedom’s lower profile partly to the timing of the Fair Grounds races compared to other key preps.
Honor Marie
Honor Marie, a Kentucky Derby contender, is gaining attention as the “wise guy horse” this year at 20-1 odds. With a strong performance in the Louisiana Derby, finishing just behind Catching Freedom, Honor Marie is anticipated to excel at the longer 1 ¼-mile distance of the Derby.
Jockey Ben Curtis highlights Honor Marie’s ability to stay power and his aptitude for closing strong, especially on the extended stretch at Churchill Downs. Curtis also mentions the importance of track conditions, noting Honor Marie’s struggles on sloppy tracks in the past.
More horse racing:Get insights on the Kentucky Derby 2024 contenders and why your pick might be wrong
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.
